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We have set buy triggers from 15,300 to 16,000 |
1st February 2010 |
Manish Shah, DMS Investment Advisory, Ahmedabad |
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Manish Shah - one of Ahmedabad's leading advisors - has opted for buy triggers in his favourite funds to invest into this correction. He believes buying by insurance companies - who are likely to collect huge amounts in their peak season now, as well as the Government's desire to complete its disinvestment program - will support markets. Manish discusses his favourite funds and the sector themes he is now recommending to his clients?. |
WF: What is your view on this correction? What are you advising your clients to do now?
Manish: On a long term basis which one and half to two years, we are bullish on the market. We therefore feel this correction should be used to invest into the market. What we did for our clients is that we have opted for buying trigger options in most of the good funds. Some buy triggers have already got activated - most of the triggers will get activated in the 15,300 to 16,000 range.
We are happy about this correction - many clients were left out and I think this is a good opportunity for them to enter into the equity funds on a long term basis.
WF: Are any of your clients nervous about the market correction?
Manish: To be very honest not really because they have not actually put in large amount of money when the markets were low. Most of the money had gone through an STP or an SIP, since they have not allocated a large amount they are not panicking at the moment. Good part is most of the clients were willing to enter at 15000 to 16000 levels. If we do see these levels, they will be very good levels to enter the market. That is why we have opted for a range of trigger options within the 15,300 to 16,000 index range
WF: Do you see markets going down to the 15,300 levels?
Manish: Personally, I don't see it going down much below 16,000 - even if it does due to some event or due to the budget etc, it won't stay there for too long.
WF: Do you see any of these global newsflows - China, US etc - having any kind of a material impact on our market ?
Manish: What Obama had spoken about will make a difference to the emerging market flows, but I don't see this substantially impacting India at the moment. Reason is I think whatever FII's have been selling, Indian institutions are buying more or less the same amount. This being the peak insurance season, I think lot of money is getting allocated to insurance schemes at the moment, which I will think will keep on supporting the markets. Also, the Government has lot of disinvestment to be done, so they will have their own interest in keeping the markets buoyant.
WF: Within the equity space any preferences right now towards either the mid caps, or large caps or themes like infrastructure etc?
Manish: I think midcaps can outperform over a longer period. But right now, I am playing safe by suggesting multicap funds. Multicap funds have some midcaps - which can participate in the upside - but also have good amount of largecaps, which can give some support if markets go down more than expected.
WF: Are you recommending gold to your clients?
Manish: No, we are not recommending gold - in fact we have told our clients to move out of gold. I don't see gold appreciating significantly - nor do I see it crashing. It's ok as a hedge - but unlikely to perform very well. I think equity will outperform gold in a big way.
WF: Do you recommend any of the international funds that are available in India?
Manish: I don't do much of international funds - except some commodity funds. If the global recovery strengthens, commodity funds will do well. In India, we don't have too many options in this space - but there are some international funds that are available here that focus on this theme - so I am recommending some of these funds to my clients.
WF: Do you see clients who have invested in 2006-2007 and whose investments have now come back to cost anxious or worried about their investments now?
Manish: Yes, they have been calling and asking us what should be done. I am telling them - if you waited for two years, why not wait for two more years. Clients who invested in NFOs which haven't performed have anyway redeemed and we have invested that money in better funds with a long track record. But clients who invested in good funds which are well diversified, are ok with staying invested.
WF: Which are your favourite equity funds and themes right now?
Manish: I have been suggesting HDFC Equity Fund, HDFC Top 200, Franklin Bluechip Fund. I have been doing lot of Reliance Banking on the thematic side, because I personally see banking doing very well as the Indian economy revives. On the midcaps side, I have been recommending IDFC Premier Equity. I have been recommending clients now to get into infrastructure again as a theme. This sector has not performed lately. However, looking forward in two years, infrastructure funds should perform well, so I am making some allocations into this theme. Funds like DSP TIGER and ICICI Prudential Infrastructure are good funds in this theme.